Dear Petko and community,

I was wondering how much reliable could be a 3 month period EA on M15 with 108 trades, 100% win rate and SQN =100. There’s an over-optimisation? Could it have similar performance in live trading? And for how many days/weeks?

Thanks for your feedback and happy trading!

Hi Angelo,

Newly created Expert Advisors should first be tested on a demo account for at least one month to determine if its performance meets expectations before moving to a live account. Demo testing should be done using the same broker as live trading to ensure the historical data is the same.

Alan,

Thank Alan, I understand the importance of demo testing, but, considering that it’s a strategy with strict TP and large SL, is it unrealistic in live trading or it could have some similar result? The answer is not binding of course, but just to understand if expecting good result is justified or not. Is it ok to aim at generating this kind of strategies? Or are they over-optimized and too good to be true!

Thanks.

i need this EA

 

Here is one of my near perfect EAs created with EA Studio:

This graphic shows the EAs Balance Line over the last 5 years:

This graphic shows the statistics of this EA in detail.

The question in consideration is “Is this EA overoptimized.  The following two graphics answers this question.

This graphic shows the EA being tested using MonteCarlo with all the Check Boxes checked.  The graphic shows The EA passed 18 0ut of the 20 test showing the EA is not overoptimized:

As a second test of over optimization I ran it through the Walk Forward test.  The result of this test shows there is a better strategy indicating the current EA strategy is not overoptimized.

Now that I have shown the EA is not overoptimized the following graphic shows its performance over the last month:

This graphic shows a profit of nearly $30 over the last month.  Note the lot size was 0.01 lots.  A lot size of 0.1 lots would have shown a profit of $300 over the last month and a lot size of 1.0 lots would have shown a profit of $3000 over the last month.

This report shows that while many near perfect balance lines can indicate an over optimized strategy this is not always the case.  This report has shown a near perfect balance line that is not over optimized and has shown to produce a nice profit over the last month.

Alan,

That’s a very high win rate and SQN—definitely a red flag for over-optimisation, which often fails in live markets. It’s crucial to test it on unseen data over several months. For a reliable performance test, you could use a tool like  manage your schedule effectively. Thanks for sharing!