the danger of Curve-Fitting ..

[Ridwan salahudin]

 

this Strategy has passed some Test like, monte carlo, Walk Forward and Optimizing and i get strategy have Good Line (Circle Blue), but when Try it to New data (green box) , the graph is drawing good line at the frist time (Circle yellow), but at the end time is falling down(Red Circle)..  and i get Similiar result again, again and again…

How to avoid this Case ?..

i though mybe some Special Action can avoid this Case like

1. what Acceptance Criteria do u use ?…
2. what timeFrame do u use ?..
3. how much data bars do u use, or Range Of Date?..
4. what preset indicator do u use at frist time?..
5. what setting generated like “Strategy Properties” or “Generator Settings” do u use?..

any suggest ?…

Thank you

[Alan Northam]

Hi Ridwan,

When using M1 time period the length of time the out of sample time frame in which the EA will continue to work properly is usually from 10% to 30% of the historical data time frame. The yellow circled area looks to be within this 10% to 30% range.

Alan,

[Author]

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